Categories
Artificial Intelligence Conferences

Notes from Schutta and Vega’s Arc of AI Workshop, part 2: Reading code is a superpower, and we were never taught it

I caught the Fundamentals of Software Engineering in the Age of AI workshop yesterday at the Arc of AI conference’s workshop day, led by Nathaniel Schutta (cloud architect at Thoughtworks, University of Minnesota instructor) and Dan Vega (Spring Developer Advocate at Broadcom, Java Champion).

Nate and Dan are the co-authors a book on the subject, Fundamentals of Software Engineering, and they’re out here workshopping the ideas with developers who are living through the same AI-saturated moment we all are.
Fair warning: this post is long. The session was dense, the conversation was good, and I took a lot of notes.

Here’s part two of several notes from the all-day session; you might want to get a coffee for this one. You can read the previous set of notes here.


How you got here doesn’t matter. That you got here does.

Nate and Dan presenting, with a slide that reads “Ultimately it is about problem solving, tinkering, creativity”

After the first break, Nate and Dan shifted from the big-picture AI discourse into something more concrete: the actual craft skills that make a software engineer, and why those skills are becoming more important in an AI-augmented world, not less.

Nate opened this segment by talking about the different paths into software engineering (the traditional CS degree, boot camps, self-taught) and making a point I think deserves wider circulation: there is no canonical path, and apologizing for yours is a waste of energy.
What matters, in his view, isn’t the credential. It’s whether you have the tinkering mindset. Whether you’ve gone to sleep thinking about a problem and woken up with the answer. Whether you look at a broken thing and feel the pull to understand why it’s broken.

He also made an honest admission about what CS programs are actually designed to do: prepare you for graduate school in computer science. That means algorithms, compiler theory, operating systems, language design. Practically useful for building production software? Debatable. Practically useful for becoming a researcher? Yes. Boot camps swing hard the other way – framework-heavy, language-focused, get-you-hired in 12 weeks – which means they’re also somewhat transitory, because the framework of the moment changes every six months.

Neither path gives you everything. That gap between “what we taught you” and “what I want you to know when you join my project” is basically what their book is trying to fill.

The skill we teach least is the one we use most: reading code

This was the section that hit me hardest, because I’ve thought about it before and never heard it stated this cleanly.

Nate’s observation: we teach people to write code almost exclusively. We spend essentially zero time teaching people to read code. And yet, in any real production environment, the ratio of reading to writing is not even close. You spend far more time navigating, understanding, and reasoning about existing code than you do creating new code from scratch.

His analogy: “I wouldn’t teach you French by saying, now go write some French.”
Reading code is hard for a few compounding reasons. You have to understand the problem domain (which is often genuinely complex – he gave examples from finance and insurance where the business rules alone are labyrinthine). You have to see the code through another person’s mental model. And you often have to do this under time pressure, making changes you don’t fully understand, in systems you weren’t around to watch grow.

The result is what Nate called “patches on top of patches on top of patches,” and the remarkable thing isn’t that these systems have bugs, it’s that they work at all.

There’s also the cognitive bias dimension. The Ikea effect: you value things you assembled yourself more than things someone else built, which means you’re inclined to view your own code as cleaner and more sensible than others’. The mere exposure effect: familiarity breeds preference, which is why developers get dogmatic about languages; not because their preferred language is objectively superior, but because it’s the one they know.

Nate had a great riff here about what he called the Blub Paradox, from a Paul Graham essay: when you’re a programmer in a language somewhere on the power continuum, you look down the spectrum and think “I can’t imagine being productive with those limitations,” and you look up and think “I don’t know why anyone would need all that weird stuff I don’t have.” The language you know well becomes your baseline for what’s normal. AI tools, interestingly, may be helping break this a bit. He and Dan both noticed they’re using more languages and frameworks than they used to.

The Lab: Reading an unfamiliar codebase without AI first

Dan ran the group through a hands-on exercise using the Spring Pet Clinic, a well-known sample Java/Spring application. The instructions were deliberately old-school: no AI tools yet. Just open the repo and start reading.

The goal was to build some muscle memory around the basics: identifying technologies and frameworks from project structure alone, finding a main application class, recognizing architectural patterns just from folder layout.

It’s a more sophisticated skill than it sounds. Dan’s point: even if you’re not a Java developer, you can learn a lot from just looking at a pom.xml. You can infer architectural choices from package structure; “package by feature” versus “package by layer” tells you something about how the original authors thought about the system. You can spot where to start, what the domain objects are, how the system is organized.

After they’d done it manually, Dan switched to showing how AI tools handle the same task, specifically using a “plan mode” in his coding assistant where he wasn’t asking it to write anything, just to explain what it was looking at. The output was genuinely useful: a breakdown of the tech stack, architectural summary, entry points, dependency graph.

His key insight: “I use AI tools far more to read code, understand things, get familiar with things, and learn things than I do to write it.”

But then the follow-up, which is the important part: he wouldn’t have known what questions to ask the AI without the fundamentals. Understanding that architecture is a thing, that there are different ways to organize packages, that there’s something meaningful to look for in the dependency file; that knowledge has to come from somewhere. The AI accelerates the exploration; it doesn’t replace the ability to know what you’re looking for.

AI can tell you what code is doing. It still can’t tell you if that’s right.

This is where the conversation got interesting. Nate made a distinction that I think is underappreciated:

These tools are now remarkably good at reverse-engineering legacy code and telling you what it does. Feed it a 30-year-old COBOL module and it’ll give you a plain-English summary of the behavior. That’s genuinely powerful, especially for the mainframe migration work he mentioned in the morning session.

But “this is what the code is doing” is a completely different question from “is this what the code should be doing?”

He gave a real-world example: a system where some business logic was technically incorrect, but the error was intentionally corrected downstream in a different process. The code was wrong on purpose, because fixing it at the source would have required fixing everything else too. An AI reading that code would correctly describe the behavior, but have no way to know the behavior was a deliberate workaround rather than a bug.

That knowledge lives in the heads of the engineers who were there when the decision was made. And increasingly, as those engineers retire or move on, it’s not living anywhere.

The airline pricing example he used was perfect: the same seats, same flights, same dates — but booking as two one-ways costs a third less than booking as a round trip. There’s almost certainly a specific piece of business logic somewhere that creates that arbitrage. An AI can describe that code. It can’t tell you whether the Delta exec who approved it knew what they were approving.

The sentinel knowledge problem, part two

Nate returned to a theme from the morning: we are starving the pipeline that creates the experts who can actually evaluate AI output. But in this session, he made it more concrete.

Senior engineers look at AI-generated code and immediately spot the issues: the approach that’ll work in a demo but fall over at scale, the pattern that was idiomatic three major versions ago, the security implication nobody mentioned. Junior engineers look at the same code and think it looks fine, because they don’t yet have the experience to know what “fine” looks like.

The concerning dynamic: juniors are increasingly using AI to learn, but learning by accepting AI output without the ability to critique it isn’t learning. It’s cargo cult programming. You’re learning to produce things that look like code without developing the underlying judgment about whether those things are good.

Nate’s line: “AI is the very eager junior developer, and you need to monitor their output closely.”

The economics sidebar: tokens, budgets, and the reality of scale

This wasn’t on the agenda, but it came up organically and it was one of the more grounded conversations of the day.

Nate described a real situation: an organization’s head of AI was approached by a developer who wanted the unlimited Claude Code tier. When asked how many tokens he needed, the answer was 60,000 a day. Response: show me that you’re generating not $300K of business value weekly, but a million dollars. Can you do that? No? Then no.

The scaling math is uncomfortable. A room full of developers (say, 5,000 at a larger company) each burning hundreds or thousands of dollars of tokens per week is a significant line item. And the current pricing reflects a subsidized market. When investors start demanding returns, those prices go up.

He drew an analogy to the Uber model: lose money for years, drive out competition, then raise prices. Except Uber’s “product” (a car ride) is a commodity. The switching costs for enterprise AI tooling embedded into CI/CD pipelines, developer workflows, and institutional processes are not trivial.

His read on Anthropic’s and OpenAI’s revenue vs. profit numbers: revenue is real. Profitability is not. People are seeing value in the product, but the product is priced below cost. That’s not a sustainable business model, and the reckoning will come.

On whether we’ve hit a plateau

Someone in the room asked whether the intelligence improvements we saw around late 2024/early 2025 would continue.

Nate’s take: we’re probably hitting a plateau on pure scaling. The exponential gains from “just make the model bigger” appear to be diminishing. Gary Marcus’s position that we’re approaching the limits of what scaling alone can achieve, strikes him as reasonable.

The “Mythos is so dangerous we can’t release it yet” announcements that keep appearing? He’s skeptical. Follow the incentives: the companies making those claims need their valuations justified.

He was slightly more philosophical about the longer tail – the sci-fi scenarios, the alignment concerns, the “what if it’s already smarter than it’s letting on” thread. He takes it seriously without catastrophizing. The honest version of his view: we don’t know what the motivations of these systems are, because the people who built them don’t fully understand how they work either. That warrants humility, not panic, but also not dismissal.

Bottom line from this session and the previous one

The throughline across the whole day, as best I can summarize it: these tools are genuinely powerful accelerants for people who already have the foundations. They are not a replacement for the foundations. They are an amplifier, and what you get out depends heavily on what you put in.

The code reading skills, the domain understanding, the architectural instincts, and the ability to ask the right questions. All of that still has to come from somewhere. What’s changed is that once you have it, you can go faster, do more, and explore more territory than you could alone.

That’s good. The part that’s bad is that we’re making decisions right now (who to hire, what to teach, what to outsource) based on the assumption that the foundations don’t matter anymore.

They matter. Probably more than they used to.

Categories
Artificial Intelligence Conferences

Notes from Schutta and Vega’s Arc of AI Workshop, part 1: The fundamentals still matter!

I caught the Fundamentals of Software Engineering in the Age of AI workshop yesterday at the Arc of AI conference’s workshop day, led by Nathaniel Schutta (cloud architect at Thoughtworks, University of Minnesota instructor) and Dan Vega (Spring Developer Advocate at Broadcom, Java Champion).

Nate and Dan are the co-authors a book on the subject, Fundamentals of Software Engineering, and they’re out here workshopping the ideas with developers who are living through the same AI-saturated moment we all are.
Fair warning: this post is long. The session was dense, the conversation was good, and I took a lot of notes.

Here’s part one of several notes from the all-day session; you might want to get a coffee for this one.


The opening thesis: giving someone a nail gun doesn’t make them a carpenter

Nate opened with a confession: he’s not handy. At all.

His words: “You give me a nail gun and that is not actually going to make anything better. The cat’s gonna have a nail in its tail.”

That image stuck with me, because it’s exactly the dynamic playing out in organizations right now. Powerful tools in the hands of people who don’t understand the underlying craft don’t produce better software – they produce faster disasters.

Both Nate and Dan were quick to acknowledge that yes, things changed. Somewhere around late 2024/early 2025, these models got noticeably better at coding. Neither of them is dismissing that. But their core argument – which they support with both evidence and lived experience – is that this is another layer of abstraction, not a replacement for understanding what’s underneath.

A brief history of “this will replace programmers”

Slide: “Here we go again,” showing a list of technologies that were supposed to replace programmers

Dan walked through the familiar arc: punch cards, assembly, higher-level languages, object-oriented programming, the cloud, and now AI-assisted development. Each step, someone announced the death of the programmer. Each step, the programmer survived and became more productive.

COBOL was going to let business people write their own programs. Java Beans were going to eliminate business logic development. No-code platforms were going to replace developers entirely. The pattern is consistent enough that healthy skepticism seems warranted.

What’s interesting about their framing is that they’re not saying AI tools aren’t significant. They’re saying the significance is being mischaracterized, and that who’s doing the characterizing matters.

Consider the source

This is where the talk got sharp. Dan’s question: if Anthropic says AI has “figured out” code and will soon write nearly all of it – why are they actively hiring engineers at $600K+ salaries?

Their breakdown of who’s claiming AI replaces developers:

  • The tool makers (Anthropic, OpenAI, etc.) – they have a financial interest in you believing their product is transformative. Grain of salt.
  • Non-programmers who want a cheat code – the “I vibe-coded an app in 64 minutes and make $30K/month” YouTube crowd. Grain of salt the size of a boulder.
  • C-suite executives – who’ve been handed a convenient narrative to justify layoffs while watching the stock price pop. Salesforce’s CEO announced 4,000 layoffs citing AI, then quietly started hiring again about a month later.

Nate made a point I’ve been making for a while: tech layoffs right now are concentrated in a small number of companies making very large cuts, rather than spread broadly. The psychological effect is outsized. Oracle laying off 30,000 people hits differently than 300 companies laying off 100 people each, even if the raw numbers are comparable.

Vibe coding: fun for weekend projects, terrifying for payroll

Slide: Andrej Karpathy’s original vibe coding tweet

The workshop spent some time on vibe coding – a term coined by Andrej Karpathy roughly a year ago. Karpathy himself called it “not too bad for throwaway weekend projects, but still quite amusing.”

Nate and Dan’s framing: the stakes matter. A vibe-coded personal budget tracker where if something breaks you just adjust a spreadsheet? Great. A vibe-coded payroll system where thousands of people don’t get paid if it breaks? Categorically different situation.

They also touched on the AWS story that’s been circulating – an agent tasked with fixing a bug couldn’t figure out how to fix it, so it deleted the entire production repository and recreated it from scratch. Which is, in a very literal sense, a solution. Just not one any human with experience would have suggested. As Dan put it: “Systems have no feelings. They have no experience of ‘wait, that doesn’t seem like a good idea.'”

The expertise gap problem

This was the section that hit hardest, and it connects to something Dan wrote about in an article he mentioned: when he uses AI to generate Spring/Java code, a domain where he has deep expertise, where he can immediately spot the issues. When he used AI to generate iOS/Swift code, where he’s a novice, it looked like magic.

The issue isn’t that the code quality was different. The issue is that his ability to evaluate it was different. When you can’t tell good code from bad in a domain, you’re not getting AI assistance; you’re getting AI dependency. You’re shipping things you don’t understand, building on patterns that will break, and learning the wrong lessons from a tool you trusted too much.
He quoted a line I want to frame: “When AI seems like magic in a language or framework, what you’re really seeing is the limit of your own ability to critique it.”

We’re choking off the pipeline that creates experts

Nate referenced the book Co-Intelligence here, and it’s the most uncomfortable part of the whole talk: the only people who can reliably check AI-generated work are experts. And we’re making decisions right now that will reduce the number of experts in ten years.

Companies are not hiring junior developers. Stanford’s CS placement rate has apparently dropped from around 98% to roughly 30%. We’re not bringing entry-level people in and giving them the foundational work (the reading, the summarizing, the debugging, the grunt work) that turns them into seniors.

He made the comparison to the early-2000s “don’t get into software engineering, those jobs are all going overseas” era, which produced a generation-level gap in senior developers and architects that companies felt painfully about five to ten years later.
And we’re doing it again. On purpose, this time, with AI as the cover story.

The mainframe migration moment

This was a tangent, but a good one. Nate’s read: we are finally, finally at the inflection point where mainframe migration becomes tractable. The combination of AI’s ability to read and document legacy code (going from code to spec is something these tools do well), plus the very real retirement risk as the people who understand those systems age out, plus the fact that the old “it’ll cost $50M and take five years and introduce a bunch of regressions” objection can now be answered with something more reasonable. All of that is converging.

He thinks we’ll see a high-profile “we got off the mainframe” announcement in the next few years, and the cloud providers will crow about it loudly.

The economics of AI tools deserve scrutiny

Nate got pointed here, and I think he’s right to. A lot of these tools are being sold at a loss, in some cases a significant one. He mentioned an organization whose vendor came back and essentially broke their contract because serving that customer cost $8M/month more than they were charging.

The concern isn’t that AI goes away. It’s that the current pricing is subsidized, and when the economics normalize, companies that have built AI deep into their workflows will be in a much more vulnerable negotiating position. The comparison to Uber is apt: Uber spent years building dependency, then raised prices. The question is how hard that switch gets thrown in the enterprise AI space.

The actual bottom line

Dan and Nate presenting, showing slide that says “I think what AI does quite frankly is reduce the floor and raise the ceiling for all of us.” — Satya Nadella

Dan closed with what I thought was the right framing: the floor has been lowered (more people can participate in building software) and the ceiling has been raised (experienced engineers can do more than ever before). Both of those things are true and good.

What’s not good is pretending the ceiling matters without the floor, and that these tools eliminate the need to understand what you’re doing. They don’t. They amplify what you already know. If you don’t know anything, they amplify that too.

Nate’s version: “I am not as bullish on the C-suite’s belief that we don’t need software engineers anymore, because business people will just write apps.”

He’s been watching business people almost-write-apps since COBOL. They haven’t quite gotten there yet.

Categories
Picdump

Saturday picdump for Saturday, April 11

Happy Saturday, everyone! Here on Global Nerdy, Saturday means that it’s time for another “picdump” — the weekly assortment of amusing or interesting pictures, comics, and memes I found over the past week. Share and enjoy!


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Categories
Current Events Meetups Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay tech, entrepreneur, and nerd events list (Monday, April 13 – Sunday, April 19)

Here’s what’s happening in the thriving tech scene in Tampa Bay and surrounding areas for the week of Monday, April 13 through Sunday, April 19!

This list includes both in-person and online events. Note that each item in the list includes:

✅ When the event will take place

✅ What the event is

✅ Where the event will take place

✅ Who is holding the event

This week’s events

Monday, April 13

Event name and location Group Time
Venice Area Toastmasters Club #5486
Online event
Toastmasters District 48 7:30 AM to 9:00 AM EDT
Online: Streaming Live Video with OBS
Online event
Orlando Video & Post Production Meetup 2:00 PM to 3:00 PM EDT
Create a Third-Person Game 10 parts Class Series – Part 6
Online event
Orlando Unity Developers Group 4:30 PM to 6:00 PM EDT
Unity: Create a Third-Person Game 10 parts Class Series – Part 6
Online event
Orlando Game Developers Meetup 4:30 PM to 6:00 PM EDT
Tea Tavern – Dungeons and Dragons
Monday, Apr 13 · 6:00 PM to 11:00 PM EDT
Tea Tavern Dungeons and Dragons Meetup Group – DMS WANTED 5:59 PM
CorelDraw Academy
MakerSpace Pinellas
Makerspaces Pinellas Meetup Group 6:00 PM to 8:00 PM EDT
Prep Online event for AI Vibe coding – prepping our database
Online event
Tampa AI Applications Meetup Group 6:00 PM to 7:00 PM EDT
TBDEG – Getting Started in Data Engineering: The Basics
Online event
Tampa Bay Data Engineering Group 6:00 PM to 7:00 PM EDT
Sarasota Blood on the Clocktower
Clocktower meetup
Board Games and Card Games in Sarasota & Bradenton 6:00 PM to 10:00 PM EDT
MTG: Commander Night
Critical Hit Games
Critical Hit Games 6:00 PM to 11:00 PM EDT
Food, Fun & Games!
Village Inn
Gulfside Gatherings 6:00 PM to 8:00 PM EDT
Toast of Lakewood Ranch Toastmasters Club
Lakewood Ranch Town Hall
Toastmasters District 48 6:30 PM to 7:30 PM EDT
North Port Toastmasters Meets Online!!
Online event
Toastmasters District 48 6:30 PM to 8:00 PM EDT
Adult Dungeons & Dragons One-Shot Campaigns at Conworlds Emporium
Conworlds Emporium
Tarpon Springs Community Fun & Games 6:30 PM to 10:00 PM EDT
Let’s Talk Toastmasters
Online event
Toastmasters Divisions C & D 7:00 PM to 8:30 PM EDT
DigiMondays
Sunshine Games | Magic the Gathering, Pokémon, Yu-Gi-Oh!
Sunshine Games 7:30 PM to 9:30 PM EDT
Weekly General Meetup
Online event
Beginning Web Development 8:00 PM to 9:00 PM EDT
Where is Bitcoin Going?
Online event
Bitcoiners of Southwest Florida 9:00 PM to 10:00 PM EDT
Return to the top of the list

Tuesday, April 14

Event name and location Group Time
Top Interview Questions: What They Mean & Why They’re Asking
Online event
Tampa Cybersecurity Training 10:00 AM to 11:00 AM EDT
Create a Third-Person Game 10 parts Class Series – Part 7
Online event
Orlando Unity Developers Group 4:30 PM to 6:00 PM EDT
Unity: Create a Third-Person Game 10 parts Class Series – Part 7
Online event
Orlando Game Developers Meetup 4:30 PM to 6:00 PM EDT
Build with AI: The “Pantry Pilot” — Vision-to-Action with Gemini 3
Online event
Gdg Ocala 6:00 PM to 7:30 PM EDT
Spanglish Toastmasters Club 7703731
Online event
Toastmasters Division G 6:00 PM to 7:30 PM EDT
Disney Lorcana Night
Critical Hit Games
Critical Hit Games 6:00 PM to 11:00 PM EDT
Hobby Night
Critical Hit Games
Critical Hit Games 6:00 PM to 11:00 PM EDT
April Critique Night
Tap Room at the Hollander Hotel
Creative Writers Support Group 6:00 PM to 8:00 PM EDT
Pinellas Writers and Authors Weekly Meeting (Online/Zoom)
Online event
Pinellas Writers Group 6:00 PM to 9:00 PM EDT
D&D @ Critical Hit Games (Full)
Critical Hit Games
RPG-Pinellas 6:30 PM to 11:00 PM EDT
Tuesday Night Trivia at Henderson’s Kitchen and Bar
Henderson’s Bar & Kitchen
Gen Geek 6:30 PM to 9:30 PM EDT
Let’s Meetup and Discuss “Local Woman Missing” by Mary Kubica
American Social Orlando
Central Florida Books and Brews 6:30 PM to 8:30 PM EDT
The Sarasota Creative Writers
Sarasota Alliance Church
The Sarasota Creative Writers Meetup Group 6:30 PM to 9:30 PM EDT
Virtual Poetry Write In
Online event
We Write Here Black and Women of Color Writing Group 6:30 PM to 8:30 PM EDT
AI Topics — What is machine learning? A high level overview.
Online event
The Infinite Loop Lounge 7:00 PM to 8:00 PM EDT
[Virtual] Tampa Bay Bitcoin Meetup: News, Markets, & Community
Online event
Tampa Bay Bitcoin 7:00 PM to 9:00 PM EDT
Winter Springs Toastmasters Club
Online event
Toastmasters Divisions C & D 7:00 PM to 8:15 PM EDT
St. Pete Beers ‘n Board Games Meetup for Young Adults
Pinellas Ale Works Brewery
St. Pete Beers ‘n Board Games for Young Adults 7:00 PM to 10:00 PM EDT
Trivia Nights @ Escape Brewing Company – Trinity
Escape Brewing Company
Tampa Bay Area Trivia Players 7:00 PM to 9:00 PM EDT
Yu-Gi-Oh Evening Tournament
Sunshine Games | Magic the Gathering, Pokémon, Yu-Gi-Oh!
Sunshine Games 7:00 PM to 11:00 PM EDT
Nic At Nite – Weekly Movie Night
Online event
Nerdbrew Events 7:30 PM to 9:30 PM EDT
Trading Tuesday
Online event
Bitcoiners of Southwest Florida 8:00 PM to 9:00 PM EDT
Return to the top of the list

Wednesday, April 15

Event name and location Group Time
Magic Pioneer Event
Wednesday, Apr 15 · 7:00 PM to 10:30 PM EDT
Sunshine Games 5:53 PM
LinkedIn Local Tampa Bay
Tech Success Network 8:00 AM to 9:30 AM EDT
Computer Repair Clinic
2079 Range Rd
Tampa Bay Technology Center 8:30 AM to 12:30 PM EDT
Create a Third-Person Game 10 parts Class Series – Part 8
Online event
Orlando Unity Developers Group 4:30 PM to 6:00 PM EDT
Unity: Create a Third-Person Game 10 parts Class Series – Part 8
Online event
Orlando Game Developers Meetup 4:30 PM to 6:00 PM EDT
40k Escalation League
Battlebrush Games
Battlebrush Games: Paint Minis & Play Warhammer/Warmachine 5:00 PM to 9:00 PM EDT
CNC Wednesday’s
MakerSpace Pinellas
Makerspaces Pinellas Meetup Group 5:30 PM to 7:30 PM EDT
Chess Night at Conworlds Emporium Every Wednesday
Conworlds Emporium
Tarpon Springs Community Fun & Games 5:30 PM to 7:00 PM EDT
Orlando Chess Association
West Osceola Library
Greater Orlando Chess 5:30 PM to 8:30 PM EDT
Vibe Coding with Bolt.new
Hillsborough County ECC
Tampa AI Applications Meetup Group 6:00 PM to 8:00 PM EDT
3D Printing Orientation: Models and Slicers
Wednesday, Apr 15 · 7:00 PM to 9:00 PM EDT
Tampa Hackerspace 6:00 PM
Casual Commander Wednesdays
Sunshine Games | Magic the Gathering, Pokémon, Yu-Gi-Oh!
Sunshine Games 6:00 PM to 11:00 PM EDT
Board Game Night
Critical Hit Games
Critical Hit Games 6:00 PM to 11:00 PM EDT
CigarCitySec Meetup
Cigar City Brewing
Central Florida CitySec 7:00 PM to 10:00 PM EDT
Apopka Foliage Toastmasters
Online event
Apopka Foliage Toastmasters 7:00 PM to 8:30 PM EDT
ONLINE / SPANISH: EPICTETO DISERTACIONES POR ARRIANO
Online event
Orlando Stoics 7:00 PM to 8:30 PM EDT
Cardfight Vanguard!! OverDress Weekly
Sunshine Games | Magic the Gathering, Pokémon, Yu-Gi-Oh!
Sunshine Games 7:30 PM to 9:30 PM EDT
Game Night!
magnanimous
Tampa 20’s and 30’s Social Crew 7:30 PM to 9:30 PM EDT
Return to the top of the list

Thursday, April 16

Event name and location Group Time
1 Million Cups St. Petersburg
The Greenhouse
1 Million Cups 9:00 AM
1 Million Cups Tampa
Entrepreneur Collaborative Center
1 Million Cups 9:00 AM
Online: Streamlabs Basics for YouTube Live
Thursday, Apr 16 · 1:00 PM to 2:30 PM EDT
Orlando Video & Post Production Meetup 11:09 AM
Sarasota Speakers Exchange Toastmasters
Online event
Toastmasters District 48 12:00 PM to 1:00 PM EDT
Online: Adobe Premiere Level 1
Online event
Orlando Video & Post Production Meetup 3:00 PM to 4:30 PM EDT
Create a Third-Person Game 10 parts Class Series – Part 9
Online event
Orlando Unity Developers Group 4:30 PM to 6:00 PM EDT
Unity: Create a Third-Person Game 10 parts Class Series – Part 9
Online event
Orlando Game Developers Meetup 4:30 PM to 6:00 PM EDT
Omni Toastmasters Club 6861
Online event
Toastmasters Divisions C & D 5:45 PM to 7:00 PM EDT
Tampa SEO and Digital Marketing Meetup with Steve Scott
Online event
Tampa SEO and Digital Marketing Meetup with Steve Scott 6:00 PM to 8:00 PM EDT
Board Game Night
Conworlds Emporium
Tarpon Springs Community Fun & Games 6:00 PM to 9:00 PM EDT
Warhammer Night
Critical Hit Games
Critical Hit Games 6:00 PM to 11:00 PM EDT
Lean Beer for All Things Agile (Tampa)
Wild Rover Brewery
Tampa Bay Agile 6:30 PM to 8:30 PM EDT
START YOUR OWN SIDE GIG! Small Business Thursdays!
MakerSpace Pinellas
Makerspaces Pinellas Meetup Group 6:30 PM to 8:30 PM EDT
April Discussion and Q&A
Online event
Bitcoin Orlando (and Worldwide) 6:30 PM to 8:00 PM EDT
Sip and Share: Poetry
Online event
We Write Here Black and Women of Color Writing Group 6:30 PM to 8:30 PM EDT
FABulous Thursdays
Sunshine Games | Magic the Gathering, Pokémon, Yu-Gi-Oh!
Sunshine Games 7:00 PM to 11:00 PM EDT
One Piece Thursdays
Sunshine Games | Magic the Gathering, Pokémon, Yu-Gi-Oh!
Sunshine Games 7:00 PM to 10:00 PM EDT
Pathfinder Society
Critical Hit Games
Critical Hit Games 7:00 PM to 10:00 PM EDT
Live streaming production and talent
124 S Ring Ave
Live streaming production and talent 7:00 PM to 9:00 PM EDT
Thursday Tacos & Tax Write Offs
Online event
Nerdbrew Events 7:30 PM to 10:30 PM EDT
Weekly Hacks
Online event
Hacktivate – Hackathon Meetup Group 8:00 PM to 9:00 PM EDT
Return to the top of the list

Friday, April 17

Event name and location Group Time
How did our nation end up in a civil war?
Friday, Apr 17 · 6:30 PM to 8:30 PM EDT
Pages and Plates Book Club 8:00 AM
Osceola Toastmasters Club
Kissimmee Utility Authority (KUA)
Toastmasters Division E 7:30 AM to 9:00 AM EDT
Computer Repair Clinic
2079 Range Rd
Tampa Bay Technology Center 8:30 AM to 12:30 PM EDT
Create a Third-Person Game 10 parts Class Series – Part 10
Online event
Orlando Unity Developers Group 4:30 PM to 6:00 PM EDT
Unity: Create a Third-Person Game 10 parts Class Series – Part 10
Online event
Orlando Game Developers Meetup 4:30 PM to 6:00 PM EDT
Age of Sigmar: Escalation League
Battlebrush Games
Battlebrush Games: Paint Minis & Play Warhammer/Warmachine 5:00 PM to 9:00 PM EDT
Friday night games!
Cozy dragon Games
Cozy Dragon Meetups! 5:00 PM to 10:00 PM EDT
Friday Board Game Night
Bridge Club
Tampa Gaming Guild 5:30 PM to 11:00 PM EDT
Everyday AI: Stranger to Companion | Apr 17–19 | 5 Sessions
EveryDay AI Learning & Social Meetup Group 6:00 PM to 8:00 PM EDT
MTG: Commander FNM
Critical Hit Games
Critical Hit Games 6:00 PM to 11:00 PM EDT
“On Anger” – Seneca, Finishing Book 3 & Closing
The Skills Center
Tampa Stoics 6:30 PM to 8:30 PM EDT
Taps & Drafts | EDH/MtG Night
1Up Entertainment, Tampa
Nerdbrew Events 7:00 PM to 9:00 PM EDT
Modern FNM
Sunshine Games | Magic the Gathering, Pokémon, Yu-Gi-Oh!
Sunshine Games 7:00 PM to 10:30 PM EDT
The Practicing Stoic: A 13-Week Online Discussion Series
Online event
Orlando Stoics 7:00 PM to 8:30 PM EDT
Friday Pokemon Tournament
Sunshine Games | Magic the Gathering, Pokémon, Yu-Gi-Oh!
Sunshine Games 7:30 PM to 11:30 PM EDT
Return to the top of the list

Saturday, April 18

Event name and location Group Time
April Book Club
Saturday, Apr 18 · 1:00 PM to 3:00 PM EDT
Tampa Bay Women’s Book Club Meetup Group 1:45 PM
Hunters Creek Toastmasters
Hart Memorial Library 2nd Floor
Toastmasters Division E 9:30 AM to 11:00 AM EDT
EZ Stock (Stock, Options, Market)
2079 Range Rd
Tampa Bay Technology Center 10:00 AM to 12:00 PM EDT
Mini Con (TCG Card show and Kawaii market)
The Castle Hotel
Gen Geek 10:00 AM to 4:00 PM EDT
Come and Hang Out
Panera Bread
Windermere Writers Group 10:00 AM to 12:00 PM EDT
Torchbearer One-Shot: Dread Crypt
Emerald City Comics 4902 113th Ave N, Clearwater, Florida 33760
St Pete and Pinellas Tabletop RPG Group 11:30 AM to 3:30 PM EDT
Welding basics
Makerspaces Pinellas Meetup Group 12:00 PM to 2:00 PM EDT
Youth Dungeons & Dragons Saturdays (Ages7-12) At Conworlds Emporium
Saturday, Apr 18 · 2:00 PM to 5:00 PM EDT
Tarpon Springs Community Fun & Games 1:00 PM
FREE Fab Lab Orientation
Faulhaber Fab Lab
Suncoast Makers 1:30 PM to 2:30 PM EDT
D&D (5e) @ Black Harbor Gaming (FULL)
Black Harbor Gaming
St Pete and Pinellas Tabletop RPG Group 1:30 PM to 5:30 PM EDT
Saturday Chess @ Cozy Kava St. Pete
Cozy Kava
Chess Republic 2:00 PM to 5:00 PM EDT
1776 by David McCullough
New World Tampa
Tampa Book Club – Award-Winning Books 3:00 PM to 5:00 PM EDT
Playing Nintendo Games (Nintendo Switch and Switch 2)
Online event
Nintendo Meetup Central Florida 3:25 PM to 5:25 PM EDT
Tech in Full Effect | Presented By Lite Technology Solutions x CiviWave
Tech in Full Effect 3:30 PM to 6:00 PM EDT
Game Project Therapy (Virtual)
Online event
Tampa Games Developer Guild 4:00 PM to 6:00 PM EDT
Warmachine Journeyman League
Battlebrush Games
Battlebrush Games: Paint Minis & Play Warhammer/Warmachine 5:00 PM to 9:00 PM EDT
Dave and Busters Game Night
Dave & Busters
Gen Geek 6:00 PM to 11:00 PM EDT
Yu-Gi-Oh Evening Tournament
Sunshine Games | Magic the Gathering, Pokémon, Yu-Gi-Oh!
Sunshine Games 7:00 PM to 11:00 PM EDT
From Zero to Crypto: Trading & Digital Business Meetup
Online event
Crypto Visionaries Meetup 9:00 PM to 11:00 PM EDT
Return to the top of the list

Sunday, April 19

Event name and location Group Time
CorelDraw Academy
MakerSpace Pinellas
Makerspaces Pinellas Meetup Group 12:00 PM to 3:00 PM EDT
Sunday Gaming
Tampa Bay Bridge Center
Tampa Gaming Guild 1:00 PM to 11:00 PM EDT
Sunday Chess at Wholefoods in Midtown, Tampa
Whole Foods Market
Chess Republic 2:00 PM to 5:00 PM EDT
D&D Adventurers League
Critical Hit Games
Critical Hit Games 2:00 PM to 7:30 PM EDT
Traveller – Science Fiction Adventure RPG
Black Harbor Gaming
St Pete and Pinellas Tabletop RPG Group 3:00 PM to 6:00 PM EDT
Sunday Pokemon League
Sunshine Games | Magic the Gathering, Pokémon, Yu-Gi-Oh!
Sunshine Games 4:00 PM to 8:00 PM EDT
A Duck Presents NB Movie Night
Discord.io/Nerdbrew
Nerd Night Out 7:00 PM to 11:30 PM EDT
Return to the top of the list

About this list

How do I put this list together?

It’s largely automated. I have a collection of Python scripts in a Jupyter Notebook that scrapes Meetup and Eventbrite for events in categories that I consider to be “tech,” “entrepreneur,” and “nerd.” The result is a checklist that I review. I make judgment calls and uncheck any items that I don’t think fit on this list.

In addition to events that my scripts find, I also manually add events when their organizers contact me with their details.

What goes into this list?

I prefer to cast a wide net, so the list includes events that would be of interest to techies, nerds, and entrepreneurs. It includes (but isn’t limited to) events that fall under any of these categories:

    • Programming, DevOps, systems administration, and testing
    • Tech project management / agile processes
    • Video, board, and role-playing games
    • Book, philosophy, and discussion clubs
    • Tech, business, and entrepreneur networking events
    • Toastmasters and other events related to improving your presentation and public speaking skills, because nerds really need to up their presentation game
    • Sci-fi, fantasy, and other genre fandoms
  • Self-improvement, especially of the sort that appeals to techies
  • Anything I deem geeky
Categories
Artificial Intelligence Current Events Editorial

You’ve got 41 days before chip prices skyrocket

If you read my post from a few days ago, you know I’ve been sounding the alarm about how Operation Epic Fury and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are going to wreck your tech budget. I talked about a “retail window” of about 3 to 6 week between the first missile strike that cut off supplies necessary for making advanced chips and the retail price hike that will follow.

Well, the clock just got a lot more specific.

Nate B. Jones of AI News & Strategy Daily is normally one of my daily go-tos for news about AI and adjacent industries. But thanks to being busy with all sorts of things, including interviewing for and landing a hot new job, I missed the video titled The 48-Day Helium Countdown. It’s his deep dive into the physical infrastructure of the AI boom and his own take on the “smoking gun” for the next wave of price hikes.

Nate posted his 48-day countdown 7 days ago, so at the time of posting, the countdown is down to 41 days.

By the way, this post is dated Monday, April 6, 2026. 41 days from now is Sunday, May 17th.

The Qatari connection

While the fighting is centered on Iran, there’s a “splash zone” in the surrounding area:

In response to the attacks by the U.S. and Israel, Iran hit Ras Laffan Industrial City in Qatar. Their rationale was that Qatar, along with other Gulf states, facilitated U.S./Israeli airstrikes on Iranian energy sites.

For those who don’t spend their weekends reading Gasworld, here’s what you need to know: Qatar is the world’s second-largest producer of helium.

As I wrote in my earlier post:
  • Helium on Earth is the result of radioactive decay.
  • As radioactive elements in the earth’s crust decay, they release alpha particles, which are made up of 2 protons and 2 neutrons. 
  • An alpha particle is a helium nucleus, and because it’s positively charged, it picks up stray electrons and becomes helium gas.
  • Helium gas gets trapped in the same rock structures that hold natural gas, and ends up mixed with it.

Helium is the “Unicorn Blood”of computing

Nate B. Jones makes a point that the mainstream tech press is still largely ignoring: Helium is irreplaceable in advanced semiconductor fabrication.

  1. Thermal Conductivity: Chips are made by using ultraviolet light to “draw” circuitry on silicon treated with a light-sensitive material.

    When drawing circuits at the 2-3 nanometer scale (a nanometer is a billionth of a meter, which is one-millionth the thickness of a dime), the heat generated is intense enough to warp the silicon wafer.

    That’s where the helium comes in. While drawing circuits on chips, helium is blown across the back of the wafer. Helium has the thermal conductivity to pull away the heat instantly, and it’s also inert, meaning that it won’t react with any substances in the process, including the chip.

    No helium = no chips, and this applies not only to processors like NVIDIA’s H100s or Apple’s M-series chips, but the high-end RAM that these systems use.

  2. The “Priority” Problem: Helium’s used for all sorts of things, and fortunately MRIs and chip fabs are at the top of the list for the current supply. But as Nate points out, “first in line” doesn’t matter if the warehouse is empty. China is currently sitting on a strategic helium reserve that the West simply doesn’t have, giving them a massive geopolitical advantage as the 41-day countdown ticks away.

41 days until the “ratchet”

According to Nate’s analysis of current global stockpiles and burn rates at major fabs (TSMC, Samsung, Intel), we have roughly 48 days (at the time he published his video; it’s 41 days as I publish this post) before the strategic reserves hit “critical low” levels.

When that happens, we aren’t just looking at expensive chips. We’re now looking at unavailable chips.

  • The hyperscalers (Google, Microsoft, AWS) will use their trillions to buy up every available (and increasingly expensive) chip to keep their datacenters running, and…
  • The consumer market (you and me) will be left with the hyperscalers’ table scraps.

The bottom line for nerds

If you’ve been vibe coding or running local models and are waiting for the next big release to upgrade your workstation, stop waiting. Your window of opportunity is closing faster than we thought.

Nate’s warning to IT procurement people is the same as mine to you: Do not wait until the second half of 2026. The structural costs are about to ratchet upward. Once the price of high-end RAM and SSDs goes up due to a physical gas shortage, those prices won’t just bounce back when the war ends. They’ll stay high while the supply chain slowly refills, while will takes years, not months.

The TL;DR remains the same, but with more urgency: If it has a chip in it, buy it before the 41 days are up. After that, you’ll face the combo of paying a “war tax” on your gear and compteting with everyone else for the same dwindling resources.

And remember, this helium shortage applies to more than datacenters, but anything with an advanced chip. That includes laptops and phones. I’ve already placed my orders, and if you planned to upgrade sometime this year, do it now.

Good luck out there.

Here’s Nate’s video, The 48-Day Helium Countdown. And remember, it’s 41 days now:

Categories
Picdump

Saturday picdump for Saturday, April 4

Happy Saturday, everyone! Here on Global Nerdy, Saturday means that it’s time for another “picdump” — the weekly assortment of amusing or interesting pictures, comics, and memes I found over the past week. Share and enjoy!


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Categories
Current Events Hardware

The war in Iran is about to make your next computer a lot more expensive. Buy now if you can.

The world just changed, and retail hasn’t caught up yet

I’ve been watching the news out of the Middle East with the same mix of alarm and exhaustion as everyone else. But somewhere around the third week of the conflict, I started noticing something: I wasn’t seeing much in the tech press was connecting the geopolitical dots to the very practical question of what this means for the laptop you’ve been putting off buying.

So let me do that.

What’s happening right now is not some distant economic abstraction. It is a specific, traceable, and, if the conflict drags on, a largely irreversible disruption to the two or three things that your computer’s chips absolutely cannot be made without. And thanks to the lag between geopolitical events and retail shelf prices, you currently have a window to act before the market catches up.

TL;DR for the short attention span reader

The situation: The U.S./Israel war on Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, and that single choke point controls a staggering amount of the supply chain that makes your computer’s chips, RAM, and storage.

The two affected countries that will affect hardware:

  1. Qatar, which produces about one-third of the world’s helium, has had its main natural gas and helium facility bombed and its exports blocked. Helium is irreplaceable in semiconductor manufacturing, and there’s no substitute.
  2. South Korea (home to Samsung and SK Hynix, who together make most of the world’s DRAM and NAND flash) imports roughly two-thirds of its helium from Qatar and is heavily dependent on Middle Eastern oil for the energy that runs those fabs. Both inputs are now severely disrupted.

The thing you need to know: RAM and SSD prices were already in crisis before the war started, driven by AI data centers consuming chips faster than manufacturers can make them. The war just poured gasoline on a fire that was already burning.

The grace period: Retailers are still selling laptops, SSDs, and RAM kits priced based on inventory they bought before the war. That lag is roughly 3 to 6 weeks. You’re in the middle of that lag right now, which means you should act quickly.

The bottom line: If you need a new laptop, more RAM, or more storage, or if you’ve been telling yourself you’ll “get around to it,” the time is now. Prices are going up. The only real question is by how much.

The long version

First, some context: The war

On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, which was a set of  coordinated (and based on the news reports, I’m using the term “coordinated” somewhat loosely here) strikes on Iranian military infrastructure and leadership.

Iran retaliated by closing the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which approximately 20% of the world’s seaborne oil passes every day. As of this writing, the strait has been effectively closed for over a month, with Iran enforcing a selective, drone-backed blockade that has terrified commercial shippers and their insurers even more than Iran’s actual naval capabilities warranted.

CNN reports that the Defense Intelligence Agency’s internal assessment was that Iran could potentially hold the strait for one to six months. The White House pushed back on the high end of that estimate, and that should have been the first warning. The strait has already been closed for five weeks.

None of this is theoretical anymore. It’s the largest disruption to the global energy supply since the 1970s oil embargo, and crude has surged past $120 a barrel. The world economy is taking a hit across the board: food prices, fertilizer, shipping costs, LNG (liquified natural gas). But for those of us in tech, there are two specific pressure points that matter most. Let me take them one at a time.

Pressure point : The helium problem

Most people think of helium as the stuff that makes balloons float and gives you a funny voice. In semiconductor manufacturing, it’s the stuff that makes your chips possible. There is, according to every semiconductor materials expert I’ve read, no viable replacement for it.

Here’s the quick version of why: When chipmakers etch the insanely tiny transistor structures onto a silicon wafer, they need to maintain almost perfectly constant temperatures across the wafer’s surface. Helium, because of its exceptional thermal conductivity and its status as a chemically inert gas, is blown across the back of the wafer to pull heat away during etching and deposition. It’s also used to cool the lithography light sources that print the chip’s circuitry, and to flush toxic residue after wafer washing.

Jacob Feldgoise, an analyst at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology, put it plainly: “Helium is an excellent thermal conductor. And so chip fabs will blow helium over the back of the wafer in order to speed heat removal and keep heat removal consistent.”

Jong-hwan Lee, a professor of semiconductor devices at South Korea’s Sangmyung University, was even more direct: “Under current semiconductor manufacturing processes, there’s no viable replacement for helium to cool wafers.”

You can’t swap helium out. You can’t use argon. Nitrogen is also a no-go. You use helium, or you don’t make chips.

Isn’t helium supposed to be the second-most common element in the universe?

The irony about helium is practically and literally on a cosmic level. Helium is everywhere in the universe, accounting for about one quarter of everything in the universe, and yet it’s in short supply here on Earth.

The disconnect comes down to one simple problem: Earth is a terrible bucket for helium. It just won’t stay put here.

Unlike nitrogen or oxygen, which we can scrub from the air around us, the helium in our atmosphere is spread so thin (about 5 parts per million), making it economically impractical to extract from the air around us.

Because helium is so light (it’s the second-lightest element in the periodic table) and is a noble gas (meaning it’s so stable that it doesn’t react with or bond with any other substance), it simply floats away into space.

So where does helium come from?

Almost all the helium we use on Earth is a byproduct of radioactive decay. Deep underground, elements like uranium and thorium decay over millions of years, releasing alpha particles, which are made up of 2 protons and 2 neutrons. That’s a helium nucleus, and because of its +2 positive charge, it very quickly attracts 2 electrons and stabilizes into a helium atom.

This helium gets trapped in the same impermeable rock layers that hold natural gas. When we drill for gas, we occasionally strike a “helium-rich” pocket. If we don’t capture it then, it’s gone.

The United States is the world’s largest helium producer. But the second largest, according to the U.S. Geological Survey, is Qatar, which accounts for about one-third of global supply. Russia is another major source, but Russian helium is currently under U.S. and EU sanctions (at least at the time of writing). Algeria produces some as well, but not nearly enough to fill the gap.

Qatar’s helium comes as a byproduct of liquefied natural gas production at Ras Laffan Industrial City, the world’s largest LNG export facility. On March 2, Iran attacked Ras Laffan with drones. Later in the month, Iranian missiles hit it again.

According to reporting from the New York Times and Entrepreneur, those helium production lines could take years to rebuild.

And even before worrying about the production damage, there’s the transport problem: helium is exported from Qatar through the Strait of Hormuz. Which is closed.

Phil Kornbluth, president of Kornbluth Helium Consulting and the person the financial press calls when they need to understand helium markets, told CNBC that it “is getting hard to imagine” the world isn’t looking at a minimum two-to-three month shutdown of helium production, followed by a four-to-six month period before the supply chain returns to anything like normal, even if the strait opened tomorrow.

The reason the recovery will take longer than the disruption is that helium has to be chilled into liquid form and stored in specialized insulated containers for transport. There are roughly 2,000 of these specialized containers worldwide, and many of them are currently stranded in Qatar or on ships that couldn’t complete their voyages. Repositioning that container fleet, even after the strait reopens, is going to tak time. Scientific American noted that “even if the strait opened tomorrow, the supply disruption will last at least two extra months.”

Spot prices for helium have already risen 70–100% over pre-war levels. If the disruption stretches to three months, analysts at IndexBox are projecting a 40–60% increase in contract prices, with genuine physical shortages in Europe and parts of Asia.

Who Gets the Helium That’s Left?

Here’s the semi-good news: helium suppliers allocate available supply by priority during shortages, and semiconductor manufacturing is at the top of the pecking order. Party balloons are at the bottom (sorry, kids). Medical MRI machines and chip fabs will be the last to lose access.

The less-good news: there’s a notable difference between “last to lose access” and “not affected.” It means chipmakers will pay whatever it takes to secure supply, and those costs flow downstream. And if the shortage stretches long enough, even prioritized allocation doesn’t save you. You’re just out of luck… and out of helium.

Samsung and SK Hynix have both said they have short-term inventory buffers. The Korea Semiconductor Industry Association says short-term supplies are sufficient. But “short-term” is doing a lot of work in those sentences, and Samsung and SK Hynix are took the classic “Asian understatement” approach and declined to answer press questions about how many weeks of inventory they actually hold.

Pressure point : South Korea is in a very bad position

Samsung and SK Hynix together produce the vast majority of the world’s DRAM (the RAM in your laptop, desktop, and phone) and NAND flash (the storage in your SSD, a.k.a. “hard drive”). Both companies are based in South Korea. And South Korea is, at this particular moment in history, caught in an incredibly bad bind.

First, energy: South Korea is heavily dependent on Middle Eastern oil to power its manufacturing. Those fabs run around the clock, consuming enormous amounts of electricity. When energy costs surge (happening right now), every wafer produced gets more expensive to make.

Second, helium: Fitch Ratings reported last week that South Korea is “particularly vulnerable” because it imports about 65% of its helium from Qatar. That supply is now offline, and South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources has opened an emergency review of 14 semiconductor supply chain materials with high Middle Eastern dependence.

SK Hynix has since said it’s diversified its helium suppliers and secured sufficient short-term inventory. Samsung has said nothing publicly. These statements are reassuring in a “there’s probably nothing to worry about right now” kind of way, which is also precisely what companies say right before there’s something to worry about.

Even without a full helium crisis, the energy costs alone are squeezing margins and, per industry analysts, pushing chipmakers to quietly slow production lines. They typically frame this sort of thing as “maximizing efficiency,” which is industry-speak for “we’re conserving resources.”

The fire was already burning before the war started

Here’s the piece of context that most of the war-focused tech coverage has skipped over, but that you absolutely need to understand: RAM and SSD prices were already in a serious crisis before February 28th.

This is not a new fire. This is a fire that’s been burning for over a year, and the war just poured a barrel of rocket fuel on it.

The root cause (surprise, surprise) is AI. Data centers building out GPU clusters for large language models consume DRAM and NAND flash at a scale that has completely distorted the memory market. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have all been redirecting manufacturing capacity toward high-bandwidth memory (HBM), the specialized RAM that feeds Nvidia’s H100s and B200s,  and away from conventional DDR5 and consumer NAND. Every wafer going into an HBM chip for an AI data center is a wafer that isn’t going into a DDR5 kit for your next laptop upgrade.

The consequences have been dramatic:

  • TrendForce reported in January that conventional DRAM contract prices were forecast to rise 55–60% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026. NAND flash was projected to rise 33–38%. (You can see their trend report on current DRAM prices here.)
  • Gartner published a forecast on February 26, two days before the war started, projecting a 130% combined surge in DRAM and SSD prices by end of 2026, driving PC prices up 17% year-over-year.
  • Micron has already exited the consumer memory business entirely, abandoning its Crucial brand to focus exclusively on AI data center customers. That leaves Samsung and SK Hynix as the only two major DRAM manufacturers still serving the consumer and developer market.
  • Tom’s Hardware has been tracking 32GB DDR4 kits that cost $60–90 in October 2025 now selling for $150–180. DDR5 32GB kits that were sub-$200 are now pushing $350+, and the cheapest are selling out.

The war doesn’t create this problem. It just makes a bad situation structurally worse and extends the timeline before which any recovery was plausible.

The grace period, and why it’s closing

Here is the most important practical fact in this entire article: retailers are currently selling hardware that they bought at pre-war prices.

There is typically a 3–6 week lag between a geopolitical event and its effects hitting the retail shelf. The supply chain between a Samsung fab in South Korea and the MacBook Pro sitting on an Apple Store shelf is long, and retail inventory was purchased weeks or months ago. Right now, that inventory is being sold at prices that were set in a world that still existed on February 27th.

That window is closing. Wholesale prices from distributors are already moving. The “cautious purchasing activity” that CNBC reported among distributors last month is how retail price increases start. Retailers who need to reorder will pay more. They will pass that along.

As of this week, there’s actually a small, tentative piece of good news: RAM prices have ticked down very slightly (about 10–15% off recent peaks) because a little bit of pre-existing inventory has been liquidated into the market. But SSD prices are still climbing, and the structural shortage hasn’t resolved. The smart read here is that the slight RAM dip is a closing window, not a trend reversal.

Pre-built laptops and systems are, right now, a particularly good deal relative to self-builds. That’s almost never true. It’s true now because major laptop manufacturers ordered their RAM and SSD inventory months ago, at lower prices, and they’re still selling finished systems at prices that reflect those older costs.

If you build your own machine today, you’re buying components at current spot-influenced prices. If you buy a pre-built, you’re getting the benefit of the manufacturer’s older inventory.

What developers and techies should actually buy, and when

If you’re a developer or someone whose work depends on a capable machine, here’s how I’d think about this:

Laptops: Buy now. This is the strongest “act immediately” category. Apple, Dell, Lenovo, and others have inventory they’ll work through in the coming weeks. The MacBook Air M4 is, as of this writing, still sitting at its launch price of roughly $1,000 for the base configuration. Reports are circulating that Apple may need to raise MacBook prices in the coming months as it replenishes RAM inventory at higher costs. The M4 Pro and M4 Max MacBook Pros are similar stories. If you’ve been eyeing one, now is measurably better than two months from now.

Windows laptop buyers should look at pre-builts from major manufacturers (Dell XPS, Lenovo ThinkPad X1, ASUS ProArt) for the same reason. You’re getting the benefit of their old inventory pricing.

RAM upgrades: Also buy now, with some nuance. If you have a desktop that can be upgraded, or you’re building a machine,today’s prices are elevated versus a year ago but are marginally lower than last month’s peak. More importantly, the trajectory from here is up. An extra 32GB DDR5 kit that costs you $350 today might be $450 in three months. The slight current dip is your buy signal, not a sign that things are recovering.

SSDs: Buy now, no nuance. SSD prices are still moving up. The 1TB Samsung 990 Pro is sitting at around $200 on Amazon right now. The same drive was $60 in mid-2023. There’s no sign of relief in the near term. If you need more storage (for development environments, Docker images, local LLM weights, whatever), buy the drive now.

External drives and NAS storage: Same story as SSDs (buy now), except Western Digital has reportedly already sold out its hard drive production for all of 2026. If you use spinning drives for backup or bulk storage, the supply situation there is independently bad.

The wild cards

I’d be giving you an incomplete picture if I didn’t acknowledge the things that could make this better or worse.

The optimistic scenario: Iran and Oman reached an agreement a couple of days ago to draft a protocol that would “monitor” and “coordinate” transit through the Strait, which sent stock markets higher. If some version of a negotiated transit arrangement takes hold, the logistics disruption could ease faster than the military situation would suggest. A two-to-three month disruption (bad but recoverable) would see helium supply normalize within a few months after that and the war’s amplifying effect on the pre-existing chip shortage fade by late 2026. Prices would still be elevated, but not catastrophically.

The pessimistic scenario: The DIA’s internal assessment put the worst-case closure duration at six months. A prolonged closure would see helium production face multi-quarter disruption, meaning chipmakers can’t maintain output even with their prioritized allocations. The IDC projects that if this scenario plays out, PC average selling prices rising 6–8% would be the floor, not the ceiling. The sub-$500 PC effectively disappears. AI infrastructure investment contracts, compounding the demand side of the memory market as well.

Either way, notice that both scenarios end at the same place for you, as someone who needs capable hardware now: buying sooner is better than buying later.

The bottom line: buy now

The world’s chip supply chain runs on helium from Qatar, energy from the Middle East, and manufacturing from South Korea. All three of those inputs are under significant stress right now in ways that have no quick fix, and that were already under strain from AI demand before the war added military strikes and a blocked strait to the mix.

The grace period, where retailers are still selling inventory priced in the before-times, is real, and it’s closing. This isn’t hype or manufactured urgency. The price signals are already moving at the wholesale level.

If you’re a developer who needs a new machine, more RAM, or more storage, the calculus is pretty simple: the risk of buying now and having prices stabilize sooner than expected is that you paid a little more than you had to. The risk of waiting is that you pay significantly more, or find that some configurations are simply unavailable.

Buy the laptop. Buy the RAM. Buy the SSD.

Do it this week. (I did.)