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How Advertisers Are Letting Go, and Learning to Love Social Software

After a long (and occasionally interesting) article about how big brand marketers have tried to use MySpace, Friendster, YouTube, et al to reach buyers, an ad exec offers this story:

Sometimes marketers find that in the end, the unplanned is what works best. Crispin Porter placed a new crop of Volkswagen commercials on YouTube and a handful of people watched them. Then a user uploaded a grainy version of one of the same commercials. It has been viewed more than 1.7 million times.

“You can’t explain this,” said Mr. Benjamin of Crispin Porter. “Someone passed it on to a friend, who passed it to others, until eventually it gets in the right people’s hands. You just can’t predict what will happen.”

More than anything, this exposes traditional marketing for the house of cards it is: we've never been able to predict how an audience will react to a message (or a messenger), but the blunt instruments for measuring mass media have always allowed enough wiggle room to let a strategy appear to be successful.For over a century, advertisers haven't been able to tell which half of the dollar they're wasting.

Marketers have to let go of the idea that they can predict, and embrace the good news that, for the first time, they can actually measure. It's nice to feel you know what will happen, but it's huge step forward for marketers to be able to know, definitively what has happened.

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Listen…Shh…To What the Blogging People Say…

The mainstream shouts out to Technorati:

Corporations are growing increasingly conscious of the power, and potential pitfalls, of blogging. A favorable review from an influential blogger can help generate the kind of buzz around a new product that traditional advertising struggles to achieve. A negative write-up can help doom a product before it even hits the market.

Now many American brands, and some brands in other countries, are starting to include blogs in their marketing plans, and are catering to them at a much earlier stage.

Blogs are like the Marines: a brand can have "No better friend, no worse enemy," and companies whose key buyers live online are wise to tune into the conversation. The blogosphere isn't just an information-rich environment for marketers, it can also serve investors too. As VC Ed Sim points out, companies like Monitor 110 are attempting to use blog chatter as a Distant Early Warning for institutional investors.

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Barter 2.0

The Times takes a look at the swapping phenomenon, using Peerflix and La La as examples:

[A]ccording to Billy McNair, chief executive of Peerflix, a DVD trading service based in Palo Alto, Calif. The company’s 250,000 members post titles of DVD’s they are willing to trade on the Web site (peerflix.com), which then facilitates the swaps by giving members printable forms that include postage and the recipient’s address.

Even though digital distribution is presumed to be the future for media businesses, Mr. McNair says he believes that physical media will remain the bedrock of the industry and of his business for the foreseeable future. About 1.5 billion DVD’s are purchased annually in the United States, he said, or about 20 a household. “And our members say they purchase more DVD’s now because they know that after they watch the movie it’ll still have value,” he said.

McNair's point is true for all products: the existence of an aftermarket—even a barter-based one—gives people an incentive to buy more.

They're nice, lightweight businesses, too: all they're providing is a database and the accompanying business logic to match users. The postal service handles all the fulfillment. As eBay will tell you, it's good to be a marketplace.

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The Guy Behind the Guy at Apple

People often overlook the fact that Apple's more than just a successful design and marketing company—they're a well-run company, too. That's largely due to their man, Tim Cook, profiled in a recent Wall Street Journal article.

When Mr. Jobs was recovering two years ago from surgery for pancreatic cancer, he placed the company's day-to-day operations in Mr. Cook's hands. Apple and people who know Mr. Jobs say the CEO is currently in good health and intends to remain at the company's helm for the foreseeable future.

Mr. Cook's low public profile notwithstanding, his contributions at Apple have earned him enough notice within technology circles that he is routinely solicited for CEO jobs, though the 45-year-old has voiced no near-term plans to leave Apple, say people who know him.

He pushed Apple parts suppliers to physically locate next to assembly plants for Apple products. That let the suppliers keep the parts in their inventory rather than Apple's own. By the end of the company's fiscal 1998 on Sept. 25 of that year, it held six days of inventory valued at $78 million, down from 31 days, or $437 million, the year earlier. Mr. Cook helped squeeze those figures down even further by the end of 1999, when inventory levels dropped to two days' worth, or about $20 million.

That's nearly a half-million of inventory off the books in three years. Apple's trailing 12 month inventory turnover ratio is 63.72, comparing favorably with efficiency poster boy Dell's 78.72, and blowing Gateway (19.82) and the big-iron-and-services-laden HP (9.86) out of the water. Apple manages to work this magic by making products people want (Steve's job) and keeping their manufacturing lean (Tim's job).

You can't help but wonder, though, when Steve goes (and, with his history with cancer, that could happen sooner than people—including Steve himself—might expect) is Tim the man to lead Apple?

Link [paid subscription required]

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Is It the Target Demo, the Community, or Just the Lack of Dead Trees?

This news from VentureBeat caught my Web 1.0 bubble-jaded eye:

Michael Moritz, venture capitalist with Sequoia Capital, and backer of Google and Yahoo, is apparently funding a blog company called Sugar Publishing, which runs four popular blogs, including flagship PopSugar, that caters to young, hip women.

The San Francisco start-up, which has a social networking component, says it is already getting 13 million monthly page views (or so it said in August), and 1.5 million unique visitors.

Rumor of the investment appeared here first. The amount is $5 million, as reported by Om Malik this evening, though we haven’t confirmed any of this.

Five mil is a lot of scratch for four blogs and a social networking hub, but when you compare it to the $25 mil or so Radar magazine blew through, perhaps being unemcumbered by dead trees makes media interesting again.

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Jobs: Microsoft Zune is Girl Repellent

Newsweek has an interview with Steve Jobs where he discusses…aw, hell; let's just go straight to the pull quote everyone's using:

Microsoft has announced its new iPod competitor, Zune. It says that this device is all about building communities. Are you worried?
In a word, no. I've seen the demonstrations on the Internet about how you can find another person using a Zune and give them a song they can play three times. It takes forever. By the time you've gone through all that, the girl's got up and left! You're much better off to take one of your earbuds out and put it in her ear. Then you're connected with about two feet of headphone cable.

In other words, Microsoft's great community feature in Zune is all about how to connect with people in the same room without actually having to physically interact with them at all. Nerd heaven!

Otherwise, not many blockbuster confessions from Steve in the interview: simplicity is hard work, but people want elegant solutions; the iPod is still cool; the record companies need occasional beatings to prevent them from ripping off their customers; Steve likes Levis.

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Toshiba Sets Their Display to Ludicrous Size

The Daily Mail is running this
picture
which features Toshiba’s “Head Dome Projector” display,
designed for very immersive computer interaction:

Toshiba's 'Head Dome Projector' display.

According to DailyTech, the display was presented at the Society for Information Display 2006 symposium, which took place in June in San Francisco. Here’s what they wrote:

The system exhibits a wide viewing
angle of 120 degrees horizontally by 70 degrees vertically without head
tracking, and 360 degrees x 360 degrees with head tracking. We assume
the head tracking feature is afforded by the fact that it sits right
over your head.

I’m sure I’m not the only person who saw the  Toshiba display and immediately thought of this:

Rick Moranis as 'Dark Helmet' from the movie 'Spaceballs'.